Opinion: Who will win promotion from the Championship this season?

                                                    

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Chris Wilder, Daniel Farke and Scott Parker are three managers who have a genuine chance of promotion this season.

 

With four teams running away from the chasing pack, establishing a ten-point lead over fifth place, it is no secret that this is one of the most exciting, unpredictable EFL Championship promotion races in years.

Leeds United and Sheffield United look to be the favourites for automatic promotion, on 72 and 70 points respectively, with Burnley and Sunderland close behind on 65 and 62 points. Coventry City, West Bromwich Albion, Bristol City, Blackburn Rovers, Middlesbrough, Watford and Norwich City are all challenging for the playoff positions, with only five points between them.

Each team has their own unique characteristics and ways of playing – let’s look at the four main challengers and discuss what they need to do to go up.

 

Leeds United

Current position: 1st

Top scorer: Joel Piroe (15)

Manager: Daniel Farke

With a squad that is a mix of big-name players signed when they were last in the Premier League two seasons ago, and young, Championship-proven players signed recently with promotion back to the big time in mind, Leeds are in control of their own destiny.

Boss Daniel Farke is no stranger to gaining promotion to the top-flight, having twice won the Championship title while at Norwich City, and he has implemented an impressive, never-say-die attitude that has seen The Whites pick up no less than 14 points from losing positions – notably coming from a goal down at second-placed Sheffield United to win 3-1 last week, scoring two goals in the final two minutes of normal time in the process.

With Championship-proven firepower including Joel Piroe, Dan James, and Willy Gnonto firing the Elland Road side to a league-high 72 goals, old Premier League favourites such as Pascal Struijk and Junior Firpo keeping it steady at the back, and just three defeats on their record this season, Leeds are unquestionably the red-hot favourites to go back to the big time.

Sheffield United

Current position: 2nd

Top scorer: Tyrese Campbell and Gustavo Hamer (7)

Manager: Chris Wilder

The very definition of a yo-yo club, Sheffield United have shown that they are unaffected by last season’s Premier League horror-show and have bounced back under old favourite Chris Wilder.

They have mostly kept the spine of their side from last year, but have also made shrewd additions such as Tyrese Campbell, Hamza Choudhury and Callum O’Hare. While no player has been a standout performer, it is a testament to Wilder’s ability to install an unbreakable team bond that The Blades have bounced back from abject disappointment to be on the brink of the big time once more.

Wilder, who first guided Sheffield United to the Premier League for the first time in 12 years during his first spell in charge in 2019, is unquestionably the right man for the job and whatever happens in the promotion charge, fans of The Blades have a lot to be positive about.

 

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Burnley

Current position: 3rd

Top scorer: Josh Brownhill (11)

Manager: Scott Parker

Burnley’s success this season is in no small part down to arguably the best defence ever seen in the Championship, having conceded just ten league goals by early March. Scott Parker has stuck with largely the same personnel in his back four all season, consisting of Connor Roberts, CJ Egan-Riley, Maxime Estève and rotating between Bashir Humphreys and Lucas Pires at left back, and is enjoying the rewards.

A weakness of Burnley’s game, however, is their attack. Midfielder Josh Brownhill is the top scorer with 11, followed by Zian Fleming with seven, but no more players have scored more than three goals. It is not necessarily sustainable to rely on a central midfielder for goals, especially if Brownhill picks up an injury, so attacking players are going to have to step up in the upcoming run-in.

Boss Parker has been promoted before with Bournemouth in 2022, and if he unlocks Burnley’s attack in the final few weeks of the season, Burnley may just sneak back into the automatic promotion spots.

 

Sunderland

Current position: 4th

Top Scorer: Wilson Isidor (12)

Manager: Régis Le Bris

From an outsider’s point of view, it is clear that since buying Sunderland Football Club in 2021, Kyril Louis-Dreyfus has done incredible job of saving a sinking ship, getting the football-mad city believing in their side again and playing attractive football.

Thanks to his connections with French football, Louis-Dreyfus has been able to bring in personnel such as renowned manager Régis Le Bris and genuine class talent such as midfielder Enzo Le Fée and striker Wilson Isidor, who is challenging for the Championship golden boot, added to an already exciting squad featuring the likes of youngsters Trai Hume, Chris Rigg and Jobe Bellingham, at 23, 17 and 19 years old respectively.

However, if Sunderland are to become genuine contenders, their recent results would tell you that they need to find a bit of consistency, having won four of their last nine games – that would need to improve if they are to sneak into the automatic promotion spots. But, with the city on their side again and the ship steadied, it is exciting times to be a Sunderland fan.

 

Based on the above analysis, it is difficult to look beyond the two Yorkshire clubs, Leeds and Sheffield United for automatic promotion back to the top flight, with the Whites going up as champions. Burnley’s defence should help them see off challengers in the playoffs.

Given the league’s unpredictability, however, with all of the top four losing to teams in the bottom half of the league, the potential for results to go against clubs challenging for promotion, or injuries to hit, could potentially be high for some of these clubs.

On the other hand, whoever goes up this year will have their work cut out in the Premier League – all three of 2023’s promoted teams, Burnley, Sheffield United and Luton Town, went back down at the first time of asking, and it looks as though 2024’s promoted teams, Leicester City, Ipswich Town and Southampton, will be heading in the same direction.

Will whoever wins promotion out of the challenging clubs have enough quality to stay up? Only time will tell, but there are no fewer than eleven clubs with a genuine chance of glory.

As we’ve learned time and time again in the past, anything can happen in the second tier.

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